Consultant Says Bar Harbor Sees 15,000 Visitors a Day in Summer Peaks. Fewer Than 500 in Winter.
Bar Harbor’s Tourism Economy Faces Big Swings and Big Planning Implications.
BAR HARBOR—Bar Harbor may feel crowded in July, but to much of the world it barely exists.
It can host fifteen thousand people a day at the waterfront in July and fewer than 500 in winter.
Those extremes, outlined in a new tourism analysis presented by Australian data consultant Edmund Morris to the Bar Harbor Sustainable Tourism Task Force, highlight what consultants describe as Bar Harbor’s core challenge: not attracting more visitors, but managing dramatic seasonal swings while protecting services for year-round residents.
That was a central message as Morris presented a 60-page report to the town’s Sustainable Tourism Task Force, earlier this month, arguing that while the waterfront strains under peak-season pressure, the town and Acadia National Park remain largely unknown outside the United States and Canada.
Morris, founder of Equator-AI, a market intelligence platform based in Australia, zoomed into the meeting as did consultants from the agency leading the task force in its work, J.E. Austin Associates. Morris is a sub consultant and according to The Conscious Traveler, “a former speechwriter turned data storyteller.”
The narrative he is telling about Bar Harbor is this: he believes that the town is undiscovered by most of the world, as is Acadia National Park. Most of its daily visits in the summer are at the downtown waterfront area. And he believes it lacks essential services compared to some other Maine towns.
Bar Harbor and the park, he said, have not had an influencer bounce since it’s not been publicly visited by megastars such as Taylor Swift.
That, he advised the task force, is something they want to prepare for.
Morris did not speak to the impact of recent celebrity visits such as Blake Shelton or Gwen Stefani or the celebrities such as Martha Stewart, or billionaires, who have summer homes on Mount Desert Island. Instead, he focused on data, some of which comes from PlacerAI, that shows that most of the area’s visitors come from the eastern areas of the United States and where visitors tend to congregate in the town.
Bar Harbor and Acadia National Park are essentially only visited by Americans and Canadians, he said.
He said that was surprising.
“Both of them hand-in-hand are essentially unknown outside of U.S. markets,” he said.
WHO IS COMING?
Most of Bar Harbor’s visitors, Morris said, repeating his preliminary findings from the fall, come from the eastern portion of the United States. International visitation, he stressed is flat, making Bar Harbor a “hidden gem” in terms of international marketing.
“The biggest threat (is) when China discovers how beautiful the town is. It may seem unlikely, but it doesn’t take a lot for international outbound operators to come in the tens of thousands,” Morris said.
Director of Operations for Side Street Cafe Bo Jennings said after the meeting that he’s worried that the data Morris is depending on is a bit incomplete, saying that people often travel in big groups, especially those from the Middle East and Asia.
Often, he said, is that people from those areas will have family in New York or Boston, so they fly to one of the major markets, and then they all drive up together. That means that larger family groups of 12 to 18 will travel.
“Often, they will stay in short term rentals, or drive onto the island each day because they lodging/housing on the island books up so fast,” Jennings said.
The National Park Service does not collect where its visitors arrive from according to Acadia National Park’s Deputy Chief of Interpretation Amanda Pollock.
Morris’ public presentation did not include the straight data sources or have a list of sources.
According to the Bar Harbor Chamber, international web users (2024 vs 2025 on visitbarharbor.com) show an interesting story, though Executive Director Everal Eaton is quick to say that they don’t show the entire story.
The percentages are listed as a total number of website users.
Top data shows the top four countries for both years listed. For web visits, China is leading the international visits, far ahead of neighboring Canada, which decreased in 2025 during increasing tensions between the country and the United States.
China
2024 - 669 (0.13%)
2025 - 34,111 (7.19%)
Singapore
2024 - 3,186 (0.64%)
2025 - 15,562 (3.28%)
Canada
2024 - 17,547 (3.52%)
2025 - 6,329 (1.33%)
United Kingdom
2024 - 2,578 (0.52%)
2025 - 2,384 (0.5%)
Poland
2024 - 9,669 (1.94%)
2025 - 107 (0.02%)
When it comes to international bookings via referrals from the chamber’s service, the top four for each year is listed below. Canada leads that group despite a marked drop again in 2025. Referrals refer to the number of listings viewed through the Book>Direct service.
Canada
2024 - 2,701 (4.62%)
2025 - 668 (1.28%)
United Kingdom
2024 - 257 (0.44%)
2025 - 272 (0.52%)
Germany
2024 - 234 (0.40%)
2025 - 167 (0.32%)
Italy
2024 - 81 (0.14%)
2025 - 159 (0.31%)
Israel
2024 - 145 (0.25%)
2025 - 69 (0.13%)
The state’s Director of Tourism Carolann Ouellette explained visitor numbers, Friday.
“In 2024 (full year 2025 is not yet available), 2% of visitors came from outside of the U.S. and Canada. 5% came from Canada. While those percentages are small, 2% accounts for roughly 296,000 visitors,” Ouellette said. “In addition, our research indicates that overseas visitors have a higher spend. That comes from both a higher daily spend for their travel party and a longer length of stay.”
For the entire Downeast area, which is beyond just Mount Desert Island, the state found that visitors spent $1.2 billion in 2024.
WHERE THE PEOPLE ARE GOING
Using PlacerAi technology, Morris also showed data maps of where cell phone pings indicate the highest amounts of congestion are in Bar Harbor and when. The AI company tracked four areas: Eden Street in Hulls Cove, the downtown waterfront, Hancock Street area, and Cadillac Mountain summit.
Ten minutes in the area and the AI has someone pinged as a visitor in the location. Most often people who are spending ten minutes or more are doing it at the waterfront, which Morris said is “bearing the brunt of all of the pressure.”
Those pings do not include residents of Bar Harbor, but could include commuters.
The waterfront peaks at about 15,000 people a day during the July 4 week, holds somewhat in August, lessens, and then picks back up in October.
”Then it plummets,” he said.
In summer there is a twenty-times increase, he said.
“If you were to remove the Island Explorer, it would get a lot worse,” he said.
The PlacerAI data also shows a great decrease in activity and visits between places such as the waterfront and Hancock Street. The summer average at the waterfront, according to that data, is 11,464 visits. At Hancock Street, that drops to 2,868.
Bar Harbor’s waterfront marks the beginning of the Shore Path, Ells Pier, whale watch excursion and iconic buildings such as the Bar Harbor Inn and the Bar Harbor Club.
Another local analysis of footfalls, again using PlacerAI, focused on West Street, Cottage Street, Main Street, and Rodick Street. Those areas are in downtown Bar Harbor.
In a graph that did not include Main Street (and changed the color coding), the highest footfall was on Cottage Street, not the waterfront, in July in 2024.
When larger cruise ship days occur, there is more pedestrian traffic in all four zones, Morris said. Though cruise ship passengers disembark at the waterfront, the data shows the highest percentage increase on those days at the Village Green and the Cottage Street zones. Similarly, the highest amount of footfalls on this chart for June and September show the highest increase at Cottage Street zone going from just under 3,500 to just under 4,000.
WHEN THE PEOPLE ARE HERE
Both the data and anyone who lives or works in Bar Harbor agree that most people come during the July Fourth week and summer months. Morris said during that time the average is approximately 15,000 a day. That decreases to approximately 450 a day in winter months. Those numbers do not differentiate between tourists and workers coming in from off the island.
That is a 20-times difference between seasons, he said, which, he added, is like pilgrims coming to Mecca during Ramadan. However, that area, he said expects the event-based increase.
Venice or ski resorts, he said, don’t see that variation.
Winter visitation is a bit harder for the Bar Harbor Chamber to track, Eaton said.
”Oftentimes, we use the benchmark that visitors tend to book on average two months out. This holds mostly true throughout most of the year. For the winter, though, visitors tend to book in shorter timeframes,” Eaton said.
Nov - January Web Users (2024 vs 2025 on visitbarharbor.com)
2024 - 61,950
2025 - 86,638
Nov - January App Users (2024 vs 2025 on Visit Bar Harbor app)
2024 - 1,846
2025 - 5,933
Nov - January Book>Direct Referrals (2024 vs 2025 users on Chamber’s Book>Direct service on visitbarharbor.com.)
2024 - 5,335
2025 - 3,436
There is more traffic than Morris thought the group would expect during June, May, September, and October.
“August and July are actually calmer relative to what it would be,” Morris said. “If you were to remove the Island Explorer, it would get a lot worse. And if you were to move it into the shoulder season, it would get better with respect to traffic.”
MORE SPENDY
Maine’s tourism numbers are decreasing. Morris believes that this is because the state is trying to lower the visitor volume and increase the spending of each visitor who arrives.
Ouellette said that’s not a completely accurate depiction of the state’s strategy.
“They are just snapshots of a larger story to tell,” Ouellette said.
The stewardship principles in the Maine Office of Tourism Destination Management Plan state, “In recent years there has been increasing scrutiny on the rationale of tourism promotion. While traditional thinking has assumed that growing numbers of visitors leads to increased economic benefits for destinations, communities are increasingly recognizing that to achieve the best possible outcomes from tourism, work must be done to optimize the benefits in balance—economic, social, and environmental. The intended outcome of tourism promotion is to ultimately improve the quality of life of the people of Maine. Quality of life in communities is often described as a strong economy, a rich cultural and social life, and a healthy environment. It’s important to recognize that dimensions of quality of life are embedded in discussions of sustainability and destination stewardship. Sustainable tourism and destination stewardship require a portfolio of actions—planning, programming, and performance management—that each contribute to the quality of life in Maine communities.”
Approximately 1 million less visitors came to Maine in 2023 than in 2019, Morris said. The spending during that time period, however, increased by approximately $1 billion. The potential increased costs of goods or services was not discussed in relation to that number.
“We realize that number of visitors is not the only priority, but rather values-aligned visitors who will stay longer, move around the state more, and come at times that may be outside of the peak season,” Ouellette said.
Bar Harbor, Morris said, should follow that path as well.
Parking costs, in Bar Harbor, he said, are actually not much for tourists who come from urban areas such as New York City.
IMPACT OF SEASONALITY AND WHO IS COMING
Morris’ focus included saying that Bar Harbor’s seasonality is also connected to a lack of essential services in the town of 5,000. He used auto repair shops as an example and said that a lack of real estate keeps such services from the town.
He said the town’s economy is mostly dependent on tourism. The town’s existing conditions report shows employment by industry sector. Approximately one-third of the employment is in the professional, scientific and technical services.
Accommodation and food services and retail trade, which are directly linked to tourism, comprise 35%.
He suggested trying to create less of a difference between the high visitation and low visitation seasons and find new or increase ways that tourism-focused spending can support non-tourism industry and providers, which was one of the many planning implications he gave throughout the presentation.
The town’s existing conditions report created for its comprehensive plan writes, “The presence of large institutions and employers like MDI Hospital, College of the Atlantic, The Jackson Laboratory, and MDI Biological Laboratory are unique for a community of this size.”
There are other employers and drivers not mentioned during the presentation. In November 2025, the College of the Atlantic created a report to highlight its role in the Mount Desert Island economy.
“Students, faculty, and staff play a central role in these impacts. The average COA student spends about $258 a month at local businesses, amounting to an estimated $744,000 annually,” COA stated in a press release.
The Jackson Laboratory and Mount Desert Island Biological Lab and Mount Desert Island Hospital are also nonprofits that impact the year-round economy.
According to the state’s tourism office, visitors to the entire Acadia and Downeast region have different activity patterns than visitors to most of the state. They stay longer. They pay to stay. They are first-time visitors who recommend the area after they leave and they mostly go sightseeing and touring and do outdoor activities.
GLOBAL TOURISM
Similar to the preliminary presentation given previously to the task force, Morris began this presentation with the big picture about the evolution of global tourism.
“In order to understand what’s going on in Bar Harbor,” he said, it’s critical to understand what’s going on globally.
He hoped to capture the dynamics of the tourism industry and how it would impact Bar Harbor for 25-75 years.
The tourism levels have increased from .002 billion in 1950 to 1.5 billion in 2024. He links that to the world’s population and its increase in global earnings. The income needed to afford to travel became less as travel becomes cheaper due to the emergence of things such as budget airlines.
More than 50% of Americans and those in Europe can afford currently to take a vacation, he said.
He predicts that there will be more people who can afford to travel despite a slight increase in the cost. Asia, Africa, and South America are predicted to be the next areas with large growth in ability of the population to travel. He did not delve into how conflict, wars, or economic or cultural disruptions would or wouldn’t impact that upward trend. He also said that in the next five years, the 15 most concentrated destinations in the world (per square kilometre) are expected to see visitation growth of 20-86%.
Bar Harbor is not one of those 15, but it will likely be impacted. A lot of the backlash of tourism is in Europe, he said. Europe has small towns, small cities and highly dense population centers.
Maine’s tourism trend has decreased from 16.2 million visitors in 2019 to 15.27 million in 2023.
He advised that “people only read listicles these days” and that influencers reinforce the same places to visit on Mount Desert Island, which creates an overcrowding of those places.
CARRYING CAPACITY AND ESSENTIAL SERVICES AND HOUSING
Carrying capacity is complicated, Morris said. It can involve cell phones, pedestrian traffic, road traffic, water and sewer infrastructure. During the housing moratorium, town staff presented to the planning board multiple times about various aspects of carrying capacity for the town.
When it came to carrying capacity at the task force presentation, Morris focused on the amount of cell phone use on the busiest summer days.
“On a busy July day,” he said, reading from a slide in the presentation, “Bar Harbor sees as much cellular demand as a Lakers’ home game at Crypto.com Arena without the benefit of stadium-grade infrastructure.”
The arena holds between 19,000 and 20,000 guests. For comparisons, the population of Bangor is approximately 31,000; Ellsworth’s is approximately 8,400.
Comparing Bar Harbor to Millinocket, Skowhegan, and Belfast, Morris also spoke to what he believes is an undersupply of dentists, grocery stores, personal care, trades, hardware, and auto mechanics. He used control averages per 1,000 residents to come to these conclusions.
There is an oversupply of tour operators, hotels and lodging, restaurants, tourism retail, healthcare, and banks, he said.
Using his graph, a town of 5,000 would need approximately 7.5 hardware stores to hit the control average or 15 auto mechanics.
Skowhegan, however, has more than 8,000 residents as opposed to Bar Harbor’s. Like Ellsworth, it is a county seat. Millinocket was also a comparison. This town, which has historically been focused on the paper industry, has just over 4,000 residents and a great distance to get to other areas for those essential services.
Morris estimated that there are 94 rentals per 1,000 residents, and that 75% of short-term rentals are owned by individuals with 3,000 empty rooms in winter.
”Tourism is crowding out essential services,” Morris said.
When the swing is massive, it becomes more difficult for businesses to survive every day, he explained.
Bar Harbor, he said, is very saturated for short term rentals. He compared the town to Pacific Grove and Bozeman. Those both have 5% of housing stock to short-term rental. Amsterdam has .2% of stock.
Investors, he said, could see an opportunity to buy 40 properties at once.
It is, however, quite rare for Bar Harbor to have that many properties for sale at a time. Bar Harbor also has a cap on non-owner occupied short-term rentals.
“Parking is a massive, massive problem for the town,” he said.
WHAT IS NEXT AND TASK FORCE RESPONSE
The consultants will return in March to continue one-on-one interviews and presentations. At the end of that stage there will be a draft strategy.
Task force member Jim Glavine said that he hoped that the plan can speak a bit more toward the safety of visitors in general, citing the death of a young Maryland man on Bar Island earlier this winter.
Town Planning Director Michele Gagnon said that Safe Streets for All Action plan is advancing. This plan focuses on having no serious injury or fatal accidents involving vehicles. She added that she understood his comment on a broader perspective.
Lead consultant Michele McKenzie said that most tourism destinations are seeking strategies for growth, but that’s not Bar Harbor’s challenge, which is to develop ways to manage the growth.
“You haven’t been talking about how to get more visitors,” Mackenzie said.
Task force member David Woodside said that typically the studies you do are for areas that are trying to attract more visitors.
“Is that what you’re saying?” he asked.
McKenzie replied that the town’s list of priorities is “very unique to Bar Harbor.”
“You’re saying that typically in the studies that you do many of the areas are trying to expand visitation?” Woodside clarified.
“Often,” she said.
Much like Morris, she added the very defined peak and valley of tourism visits of Bar Harbor make it unique.
“The lack of services for year-round residents is a concern going forward,” she said.
Woodside said that the waterfront doesn’t correlate being busier compared to the town’s experience. Cottage Street being the most popular area also doesn’t correlate to experience, he said. Main Street is busier, he said.
“Wow. Your presentation is overwhelming,” Vice Chair Albert Enoch told Morris. “You think that tourism should support local residents for example for essential services?”
People in town, Albert said, have been talking about the increase in property taxes. He asked for examples in other gateway communities where the tourism industry has helped to support local residents.
Seasonality and essential services are the two major themes task force member John Kelly saw in the presentation.
“I don’t think that’s the problem that the town is recognizing. Seasonality, in a way, is our way of sustaining tourism because it doesn’t go 365 days a year. My experience here for 25 years is that, on November 1, or sometime around that time of year, you can feel this big sense of relief and people going, ‘Ah, thank God it’s over, for now.’ So, seasonality is actually a way of coping, managing, with the sustainability of that season,” Kelly said. “The other piece is while the data shows specific things about essential services, I have every service I want in Bar Harbor. I can go down the list. There’s a lot in Bar Harbor that a rural town in Maine of 5,200 people would die for. We have plenty going on. We’re also not an urban center. We have that 10-15 miles away in Ellsworth.”
Glavine echoed Kelly’s comments. He said the work was remarkable and Morris’ work was “most extraordinary.”
“We’re 140 years or so that we’ve been doing tourism,” task force member Jeremy Dougherty said of Bar Harbor. That, he believes, makes it unique and more complex. “There’s people who have been living here for four generations and then there’s people in four generations that have been dealing with it, so to speak.”
European models of controls are very different from what American governments will do because of the capitalistic approach to business, he said.
Task force member Patricia Buccello and some other task force members recommended having longer than the current two-hour meetings so that they can discuss things more. The meetings are open to the public and occur at the Bar Harbor Municipal Building. The next one is currently scheduled for March 11.
Unless otherwise labeled all slides are from Morris’ presentation.
LINKS TO LEARN MORE
You can email the task force: STMTaskForce@barharbormaine.gov.
The Planning Department staff are also included in the group email.
Sustainable Tourism Management Task Force bylaws
The task force’s page on the town’s website.
State’s Destination Management Plan.
REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL (RFP) SUSTAINABLE TOURISM MANAGEMENT STRATEGY TOWN OF BAR HARBOR, MAINE
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It seems a little discouraging that the town needed to hire a consultant to tell them that they have a seasonal economy. I’ll bet most residents already understood that.
John Kelly's point about seasonality being your relief valve really landed. "Thank God it's over, for now" isn't a problem to solve. It's your community exhaling. Managing tourism doesn't mean eliminating that break.